Thursday, May 31, 2018

Crude oil eases on record US production, OPEC supply hopes

Crude oil futures lost more ground on Friday, with the U.S. market set for a second week of decline on pressure from record U.S. production and expectations of OPEC boosting output.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $66.88 a barrel by 0423 GMT, after falling almost 2 percent on Thursday.

Global benchmark Brent crude, which was little changed in the previous session, was down 9 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $77.47 per barrel.

For the week, WTI is on track for a 1.5 percent fall, adding to last week's near 5 percent decline, while Brent is set to rise 1.3 percent, widening the spread between the two benchmarks.

U.S. crude production has been rising to record-high levels since late last year. In March it jumped 215,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.47 million bpd, a new monthly record, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday.

"U.S. production is growing, the line is growing straight up when you look at U.S. production," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.

"The big thing is the increasing spread between Brent and WTI. Financially it makes sense for buyers to take WTI as it is so cheap."

On Thursday, the premium for Brent over WTI surpassed $11 a barrel, the largest since early 2015. It has doubled in less than a month, as a lack of pipeline capacity in the United States has trapped a lot of output inland.

"A drop in inventories in the U.S. was overshadowed by U.S. output which jumped to a record-high level," ANZ said in a note.

U.S. crude stockpiles fell 3.6 million barrels last week, the EIA said, exceeding expectations for a decline of 525,000 barrels.

Russia would be able to raise its oil output back to pre-cut levels within months if there is a decision to unwind the price-protection deal with OPEC and other producers, a Russian energy ministry official said.

Concerns about U.S. bottlenecks are contributing to the decline in U.S. futures as well. Prices for physical barrels of U.S. light sweet crude delivered at Midland are at their largest discount to the benchmark U.S. futures price in almost four years.

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MCX crude may slide on oversupply concerns, Soybean futures to extend slide


Base metals may rebound on Thursday while crude oil is expected to trade with negative bias as oil prices dropped on Thursday weighed down by a surprise rise in US crude inventories and expectations that Opec and other producers could increase output at a meeting in June. 

Let's find out how key commodities are likely to trade in the domestic market: 

Crude Oil
Crude oil can take support near Rs 4,550 while it has a resistance near Rs 4,650 in MCXNSE -0.32 %, says SMC Global Securities. A possible production increase by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec members including Russia has been in focus, especially after Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the oil cartel, and Russia have discussed boosting output by some 1 million barrels per day. 

Natural Gas: Natural gas may remain sideways as weather-related demand and weekly inventory data in the US will give further direction to the prices. Overall, it can move in the range of Rs 192 - Rs 200 on MCX. 

Base Metals
Copper: Copper can take support near Rs 454 and can face resistance near Rs 463. Indian electrical goods manufacturers will have to rely more on imported copper and are bracing for a rise in costs, after the government in Tamil Nadu this week ordered the permanent closure of Vedanta's copper smelter there, says SMC Global Securities.

Zinc, Lead: Zinc can trade with an upside bias as it can take support near Rs 209 and resistance near 215 while lead can take support near Rs 163 and can face resistance near Rs 167. 

Agri Commodities
Soybean futures (June) is likely to fall further towards Rs 3,500 levels. 

Mustard seed futures (June): is expected to trade with a downside bias and test Rs 3,860 levels taking negative cues from the spot markets. 

Chana futures: Chana futures (June) is expected to break the support near Rs 3,500 levels and fall further towards Rs 3,450 - Rs 3,400 levels. 

Bullion counter: Momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown bearishness with negative crossover for gold. "Therefore, we expect sideways to bearish movement in MCX gold prices," says Choice Broking. Meanwhile, Silver (July futures) can take support near Rs 39,700 and can face resistance near Rs 40,300. 

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Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Gold gains as Italy crisis drives safe-haven buying

Gold prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as political turmoil in Italy and concerns over Sino- trade conflict spurred safe-haven demand. 

FUNDAMENTALS 

Spot gold had risen 0.3 per cent to $1,301.98 per ounce by 0125 GMT. 

Gold futures for June delivery were up 0.2 per cent at $1,301.50 per ounce. 

Italy may hold repeat elections as early as July after the man asked to be prime minister failed to secure support from major political parties for even a stop-gap government, sources said on Tuesday, as markets tumbled on the growing political turmoil. 

The United States said on Tuesday that it still holds the threat of imposing tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China and will use it unless Beijing addresses the issue of theft of American intellectual property. 

Asian shares looked set for a sharpNSE 0.00 % fall on Wednesday as Italy's political crisis provoked a sell-off on Wall Street, sent the euro to a 10-month low and spiked borrowing costs for the government in Rome. 

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields posted their largest one-day drop on Tuesday since Britain voted to exit the European Union nearly two years ago. 

The Federal Reserve will have difficulty raising interest rates significantly beyond the settings of its Japanese and European counterparts, which are still pursuing accommodative policy, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday. 

Interest rates futures rallied on Tuesday as traders slashed their expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise key overnight borrowing costs three more times in 2018 as Italy's political situation threatens European economic growth. 

A top North Korean official was headed to New York on Tuesday for talks with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.35 per cent to 851.45 tonnes on Tuesday. 

Shandong Gold Group Co Ltd , China's largest gold producer, is hunting for gold around the world and is "looking forward to investing in Peru", the chairman of the company said during a presentation Tuesday. 

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Monday, May 28, 2018

कमोडिटी बाजार में आज क्या हो रणनीति

कच्चे तेल में भारी उठापटक हो रहा है। ब्रेंट में 3 हफ्ते के निचले स्तर से हल्की रिकवरी आई है और इसका दाम 75 डॉलर के पार चला गया है। जबकि नायमैक्स क्रूड में तेज गिरावट आई है। 

इसमें 67 डॉलर के नीचे कारोबार हो रहा है। दरअसल ओपेक करीब 10 लाख बैरल रोजाना उत्पादन बढ़ा सकता है। 

वहीं अमेरिका में भी क्रूड का उत्पादन लगातार बढ़ रहा है। ऐसे में कच्चे तेल की तेजी पर ब्रेक लग चुकी है।

इस बीच ग्लोबल मार्केट में सोने की चमक फिर से फीकी पड़ गई है। इसमें 1300 डॉलर के नीचे कारोबार हो रहा है। चांदी में करीब 0.5 फीसदी की गिरावट आई है। 

वहीं चीन में निकेल का दाम करीब 2.5 फीसदी उछल गया है। दरअसल लंदन मेटल एक्सचेंज पर ये करीब 1 फीसदी ऊपर कारोबार कर रहा है। 

हालांकि आज डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये में जोरदार गिरावट आई है और रुपया करीब 0.5 फीसदी की कमजोरी के साथ कारोबार कर रहा है। एक डॉलर की कीमत 67.70 रुपये के पास पहुंच गई है।

अधिक जानकारी के लिए अपना नंबर तुरंत रजिस्टर करे और ज्यादा से ज्यादा मुनाफा कमाए शेयर बाजार से