Gold prices rush to near two-year high as festive season spurts demand

Ahead of the festive season, gold prices are trading near a two-year high at Rs31,950-levels on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). Gold futures on the MCX have climbed 6.14% in the last three months, while overseas gold has gained 2.48% in the same period.

Prices of gold in the local markets have climbed due to a weak rupee. Besides, increased buying by local jewelers in the domestic spot market to meet festive season demand has also fuelled the uptrend.

The most auspicious day of the year to buy gold is Dhanteras, which falls on November 5, two days before the Hindu festival of Diwali. Wearing or gifting of jewelry in this period is thought to bring good fortune during celebrations and weddings.

Furthermore, MCX gold price, on the weekly chart, has given a breakout of its symmetrical triangle pattern at Rs31,420-levels. On the other hand, gold prices are also trading above its 100-DEMA (day exponential moving average) on the weekly chart, which indicates that the medium-term trend remains up. 

Also, momentum indicator MACD has also shown a positive crossover on the weekly chart, which suggests more upside momentum in the prices in the coming trading sessions. COMEX gold price has also given a breakout of its consolidation range from $1,214.20 to $1,174-levels.

Currently, COMEX gold is trading near its three-month-high, which supports our bullish view on the commodity. In the near term, we expect that MCX gold futures prices could move higher towards Rs33,050-levels.

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Commodity market outlook for July 31, 2018

Bullions View

MCX gold for October contract is trading in a Falling Wedge pattern where recently prices had taken support at lower band around 29,800 and is inching higher. 

Once it breaks the upper band resistance of 30,050, we could see a sharp up move towards 30,300 followed by 30,500. On the other hand, if it breaches the lower band support of 29,775, gold prices could decline towards the 29,500 mark. However, bias remains positive for gold going forward.

Energy View

Crude oil prices are showing signs of reversal from its lower levels by giving an hourly close above the upper band resistance of 4,800. Also, the momentum indicator, RSI has also gone above 60 mark on the hourly charts, giving positive confirmation. 

Crude oil can head higher towards the 5,000 mark in the coming sessions. A small dip near 4,770 can also be considered as buying opportunity.

Base Metals View

As long as base metals are concerned, lead, nickel and aluminium remained strong in the previous session, while copper remained flat and zinc gave a negative close. 

Outlook remains positive for metals as structure for all metals look bullish. For aluminium, immediate resistance lies near 141.80, above which we may see prices heading higher towards 143.50. Lead, on the other hand, can inch higher towards 148.80 going forward.

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कमोडिटी बाजार में आज क्या हो रणनीति

डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये में आज हल्की मजबूती आई है। हालांकि इसके बावजूद डॉलर की कीमत 69 रुपये के ऊपर बनी हुई है। 

इस बीच ग्लोबल मार्केट सोने की कीमतों पर आज भी दबाव है और ये लगातार दूसरे दिन 1220 डॉलर के नीचे बना हुआ है। इस हफ्ते सोने में करीब 2 फीसदी की गिरावट आ चुकी है। 

दरअसल चीन और भारत में सोने की मांग में कमी आई है। वहीं डॉलर में भी मजबूती है। ऐसे में सोने की कीमतों पर दोहरी मार पड़ रही है।

चांदी भी एक साल के निचले स्तर पर है। दरअसल बेस मेटल में आई भारी गिरावट से चांदी पर चौतरफा मार पड़ रही है। अमेरिका और चीन के बीच ट्रेड वॉर की वजह से कॉपर एक साल के निचले स्तर पर है। 

आज लंदन मेटल एक्सचेंज पर आज इसने 6 हजार डॉलर के भी नीचे का स्तर छू लिया है। बाकी मेटल में भी करीब 1 से 1.5 फीसदी की गिरावट का रुख है। 

इस बीच मौसम विभाग ने बंगाल, ओडिशा, राजस्थान और आंध्रप्रदेश में भारी बारिश की चेतावनी दी है।

अधिक जानकरी के लिए अपना नंबर तुरंत रजिस्टर करे और ज्यादा से ज्यादा मुनाफा कमाए कमोडिटी बाजार से 

Gold prices inch up amid Brexit uncertainty, subdued dollar

Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at $1,258.12 an ounce at 0057 GMT. The metal touched its highest since June 26 at $1,265.87 on Monday. 

US gold futures for August delivery were 0.1 per cent lower at $1,258.70 an ounce. 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was steady at 94.028. It fell to its lowest since mid-June in the previous session. 

Prime Minister Theresa May's foreign minister and Brexit negotiator quit on Monday in protest at her plans to keep close trade ties with the European Union after Britain leaves the bloc, stirring rebellion in her party's ranks. 

The Bank of Japan maintained its upbeat economic assessment for all nine regions of the country but some areas saw companies fret about rising costs from labour shortages, a sign that a tightening job market could constrain business activity. 

Speculators raised their net long position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to July 3, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Monday. 

Canadian miner Barrick Gold Corp and China's Shandong Gold on Monday said they would deepen cooperation beyond their Argentinian joint venture, potentially working together on acquisitions. 

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Gold prices steady amid rate hike prospects

Gold prices steadied early on Monday, after falling to the lowest in more than a week in the previous session, as expectations of an interest rate hike this month offset support from worries about a trade war. 

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $1,293.06 per ounce by 0111 GMT. It touched the lowest since May 23 at $1,289.12 an ounce in the previous session. 

US gold futures for August delivery were down 0.2 per cent at $1,297.10 per ounce. 

US job growth accelerated in May and the unemployment rate dropped to an 18-year low of 3.8 per cent, pointing to rapidly tightening labor market conditions, which could stir concerns about inflation. 

The Federal Reserve should continue to raise rates gradually over the next two years, a US central banker said on Friday, with higher borrowing costs perhaps beginning to act as a brake on growth starting early next year. 

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.25 per cent to 836.42 tonnes on Friday from 847.03 tonnes on Thursday. 

Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long position in COMEX gold contracts to the strongest since late April in the week to May 29, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday. 

Gold demand in most Asian centres remained sluggish last week with prices stuck in a tight range, while an inauspicious period for buying the yellow metal dampened demand in major consumer India. 

US hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by long-time gold bull John Paulson, is set to name a group of investors that will work together to try to drive changes and better returns from gold mining companies after years of dismal industry performance, according to people familiar with the situation. 

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MCX crude may slide on oversupply concerns, Soybean futures to extend slide

Base metals may rebound on Thursday while crude oil is expected to trade with negative bias as oil prices dropped on Thursday weighed down by a surprise rise in US crude inventories and expectations that Opec and other producers could increase output at a meeting in June. 

Let's find out how key commodities are likely to trade in the domestic market: 

Crude Oil

Crude oil can take support near Rs 4,550 while it has a resistance near Rs 4,650 in MCXNSE -0.32 %, says SMC Global Securities. A possible production increase by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec members including Russia has been in focus, especially after Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the oil cartel, and Russia have discussed boosting output by some 1 million barrels per day. 

Natural Gas: Natural gas may remain sideways as weather-related demand and weekly inventory data in the US will give further direction to the prices. Overall, it can move in the range of Rs 192 - Rs 200 on MCX. 

Base Metals

Copper: Copper can take support near Rs 454 and can face resistance near Rs 463. Indian electrical goods manufacturers will have to rely more on imported copper and are bracing for a rise in costs, after the government in Tamil Nadu this week ordered the permanent closure of Vedanta's copper smelter there, says SMC Global Securities.

Zinc, Lead: Zinc can trade with an upside bias as it can take support near Rs 209 and resistance near 215 while lead can take support near Rs 163 and can face resistance near Rs 167. 

Agri Commodities

Soybean futures (June) is likely to fall further towards Rs 3,500 levels. 

Mustard seed futures (June): is expected to trade with a downside bias and test Rs 3,860 levels taking negative cues from the spot markets. 

Chana futures: Chana futures (June) is expected to break the support near Rs 3,500 levels and fall further towards Rs 3,450 - Rs 3,400 levels. 

Bullion counter: Momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown bearishness with negative crossover for gold. "Therefore, we expect sideways to bearish movement in MCX gold prices," says Choice Broking. Meanwhile, Silver (July futures) can take support near Rs 39,700 and can face resistance near Rs 40,300. 

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Gold gains as Italy crisis drives safe-haven buying

Gold prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday as political turmoil in Italy and concerns over Sino- trade conflict spurred safe-haven demand. 

FUNDAMENTALS 

Spot gold had risen 0.3 per cent to $1,301.98 per ounce by 0125 GMT. 

Gold futures for June delivery were up 0.2 per cent at $1,301.50 per ounce. 

Italy may hold repeat elections as early as July after the man asked to be prime minister failed to secure support from major political parties for even a stop-gap government, sources said on Tuesday, as markets tumbled on the growing political turmoil. 

The United States said on Tuesday that it still holds the threat of imposing tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China and will use it unless Beijing addresses the issue of theft of American intellectual property. 

Asian shares looked set for a sharpNSE 0.00 % fall on Wednesday as Italy's political crisis provoked a sell-off on Wall Street, sent the euro to a 10-month low and spiked borrowing costs for the government in Rome. 

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields posted their largest one-day drop on Tuesday since Britain voted to exit the European Union nearly two years ago. 

The Federal Reserve will have difficulty raising interest rates significantly beyond the settings of its Japanese and European counterparts, which are still pursuing accommodative policy, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday. 

Interest rates futures rallied on Tuesday as traders slashed their expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise key overnight borrowing costs three more times in 2018 as Italy's political situation threatens European economic growth. 

A top North Korean official was headed to New York on Tuesday for talks with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. 

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.35 per cent to 851.45 tonnes on Tuesday. 

Shandong Gold Group Co Ltd , China's largest gold producer, is hunting for gold around the world and is "looking forward to investing in Peru", the chairman of the company said during a presentation Tuesday. 

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