Gold prices rush to near two-year high as festive season spurts demand

Ahead of the festive season, gold prices are trading near a two-year high at Rs31,950-levels on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). Gold futures on the MCX have climbed 6.14% in the last three months, while overseas gold has gained 2.48% in the same period.

Prices of gold in the local markets have climbed due to a weak rupee. Besides, increased buying by local jewelers in the domestic spot market to meet festive season demand has also fuelled the uptrend.

The most auspicious day of the year to buy gold is Dhanteras, which falls on November 5, two days before the Hindu festival of Diwali. Wearing or gifting of jewelry in this period is thought to bring good fortune during celebrations and weddings.

Furthermore, MCX gold price, on the weekly chart, has given a breakout of its symmetrical triangle pattern at Rs31,420-levels. On the other hand, gold prices are also trading above its 100-DEMA (day exponential moving average) on the weekly chart, which indicates that the medium-term trend remains up. 

Also, momentum indicator MACD has also shown a positive crossover on the weekly chart, which suggests more upside momentum in the prices in the coming trading sessions. COMEX gold price has also given a breakout of its consolidation range from $1,214.20 to $1,174-levels.

Currently, COMEX gold is trading near its three-month-high, which supports our bullish view on the commodity. In the near term, we expect that MCX gold futures prices could move higher towards Rs33,050-levels.

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Commodity market outlook for August 21, 2018

Bullions View

Prices gave a gap up opening in the previous session and remained positive throughout the session, even though the move was small. The outlook remains positive as the structure is positive. COMEX gold and silver also inched higher early in the session with gains of over half percent.  

MCX silver needs to give a close above 37,000 levels to gain momentum, while gold has started moving in the upward direction. However, RSI is still ranging between 60-40 levels giving no clear view on the direction. The favored view remains bullish.

Energy View

Crude oil prices took support at 4,550 levels and inched higher in the previous session. Once it breaks 4,650, Dow theory would be confirmed, and we could then expect some strong positive move in crude oil, which would head prices towards 4,780. Outlook for natural gas still remains bearish as prices are not surpassing its previous highs, while at the same time, it is touching new lows.

Base Metals View

We saw lead remain weak, while other metals inched higher during the previous session. Outlook for lead remains bearish, while copper and zinc would continue to remain bullish. Immediate resistance for copper lies near 413.50, while for nickel, it is at 955. If we see lead move above 140, the outlook may change to positive.

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कमोडिटी बाजार में आज क्या हो रणनीति

पिछले हफ्ते भारी गिरावट के बाद कच्चे तेल पर आज भी दबाव कायम है। ब्रेंट का दाम लगातार 72 डॉलर के नीचे है। दरअसल टर्की संकट और अमेरिका और चीन में ट्रेड वॉर से क्रूड की मांग घटने की आशंका है। ऐसे में कीमतों पर चौतरफा मार पड़ रही है। 

इस बीच सोना हालांकि 1.5 साल के निचले स्तर से करीब 25 डॉलर संभल गया है और कॉमेक्स पर ये 1185 डॉलर के स्तर पर कारोबार कर रहा है। 

पिछले हफ्ते से 1160 डॉलर तक लुढ़क गया था। आज चांदी में ऊपरी स्तर से दबाव है और ये करीब एक चौथाई परसेंट नीचे है।

उधर अमेरिका और चीन में ट्रेड टॉक की उम्मीद से मेटल को सपोर्ट मिला है और कॉपर का दाम लंदन मेटल एक्सचेंज और शांघई एक्सचेंज पर करीब 0.5 फीसदी बढ़ गया है। 

पिछले हफ्ते ये 1 साल के निचले स्तर पर लुढ़क गया था। आज डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपये में शानदार रिकवरी आई है और 1डॉलर की कीमत 69.90 रुपये के नीचे आ गई है।

अधिक जानकरी के लिए अपना नंबर तुरंत रजिस्टर करे और ज्यादा से ज्यादा मुनाफा कमाए शेयर बाजार से 

Commodity Market Update for August 07, 2018

Bullions View

Gold prices have been trading in a declining channel formation since the past few weeks. Recently, it has taken support near the lower band at 29,550 levels and inched higher. Hence, we expect prices to move higher towards the upper band levels of 29,880. 

While it breaks the upper band resistance of 29,880 levels, it could inch higher towards 30,050 levels.

Energy View

Crude oil prices are trading in a broad range of 4,600-4,830 levels. The bias remains positive for this week. We expect prices to rally towards the upper band and if broken, a 300 points upside can be witnessed in the short-term. 

Prices are stuck near the upper band of the broadening pattern. Hence, as long as the upper band levels of 197 is capped on the higher side, profit-booking can be expected.

Base Metals View

Copper prices are trading near their crucial support levels of 414. If it breaches 414 levels, we could see a fall of Rs4 in quick time followed by a fall of Rs10. 

Hence, the 414 levels should not be taken out on a daily closing basis for copper to remain in positive trend. Aluminum, on the other hand, took support near 138.50 levels and inched higher as per our expectation. We saw some positive move in nickel and lately in lead as well.

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Commodity market outlook for August 06, 2018

Bullions View

Bullions inched higher on Friday, which initially witnessed a gap down opening but later went higher. Prices took support from a lower band of the declining channel formation formed on hourly charts and inched higher, while silver initially slipped below its support of 37,880 levels but failed to remain lower and moved higher giving positive close on Friday’s session. 

For now, as long as silver is trading above 37,750 levels, the outlook remains bullish for upside target of 38,600 mark.

Energy View

Crude oil prices slipped lower on Friday; however, there has been no change in outlook, which is positive. As long as 4,600 mark is protected on the lower side, we still believe that prices could move towards the 4,830 mark in the coming few sessions. 

The momentum indicator, RSI is above the 40 mark, which is again giving a positive sign that prices have the potential to trade higher.

Base Metals View

All the other metals remained in a small range on Friday’s session, with only nickel and zinc gaining over 1%. Chart structure of nickel is strong along with copper, while zinc is trading below its resistance of 182.30 levels. If we see zinc moving above 182.30 levels, it could head higher towards 184 levels going forward. 

Aluminum, on the other hand, is trading above its multiple support levels of 138.50, below which outlook may turn bearish.

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Commodity Market outlook for August 03, 2018

Bullions View

As per our view, bullion prices dropped in the previous session. Gold fell below 29,670, which was acting as a support level. However, silver prices are still trading above its multiple support of 37,850 levels. 

If silver prices breach 37,850 levels, then it may drift lower towards the 37,600/37,400 mark. Failing to this could head silver prices towards the 38,200 level. Outlook for gold would remain bearish as long as the prices are trading below the 29,800 mark.

Energy View

Crude oil prices failed to move below the 4,600 mark and moved sharply up towards the 4,750 level. Further, we expect prices should continue to move up towards the 4,800 level going forward. 

The momentum indicator, RSI has also inched above the 60 mark on hourly charts adding bullishness to the prices. Natural gas prices moved up in the previous session post inventories data, where prices gained around 2.5%. Outlook remains positive going forward.

Base Metals View

Metal prices remained volatile in the previous session, where initially prices headed higher followed by a decline in the second half. Zinc prices remained in trading range of 174–182, while nickel and copper traded flat. 

We saw aluminum prices broke its support of 139.70 and closed below that. Going forward, aluminum should remain weak while zinc and copper should trade higher in the session to come.

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Commodity Market outlook for August 02, 2018

Bullions View

In the previous session, bullions remained volatile. Prices dragged down during the second half. Further, gold and silver both closed below their support levels. 

We expect prices to remain under pressure as long as they are trading below their support levels of 29,800 and 38,150, respectively. For gold and silver. RSI on the hourly charts also fell below the 40 mark adding bearishness to prices.

Energy View

Crude oil prices traded in line with our bearish outlook, dipping 2% in the previous session. In the first half, prices broke its support of 4,700 levels and remained lower throughout the session. Immediate support lies near 4,600 levels; if taken out, a further 100 points downward movement will be seen going forward. 

Conversely, if it holds at 4,600 levels and moves above 4,650 levels, prices could bounce back till 4,700 levels, followed by 4,750 levels in the upcoming sessions.

Base Metals View

Metal prices remained weak in the previous session. They were down over 1.5%, while nickel lost over 5%, compared with the preceding session. For copper, immediate support lies near 410 levels. On the other hand, zinc, nickel, and lead closed near the support levels of 174.90, 917 and 145.50, respectively. 

Aluminum closed near a 78.6% retracement level of its prior upward movement of 138.10-145.30. Hence, we could expect some short covering in base metals as all were trading near their respective support levels.

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